TheInvisibleHand
04-12-2010, 11:57 PM
The Dow closed @ 11005.97, which was the first time since September 2008 that it closed over this key resistance. In our article, 2010 What Lies Ahead, we stated:
"The Great depression lasted 3.7 years, from Aug 1929- March 1933. The current economic downturn started around Dec 2007- TBA. So lets hypothesize that this current one will last 3 yrs give or take a month. The March bottom in 2009 will probably mark the bottom of this cycle and 2010 we should see a range in the dow from 8250 - 12000+. If thats the case the The Global Credit Crisis should end on DEC 10 2010. If this hypothesis is correct, we must also assume that the market prices this in 6-9 months before. this is why i expect the market to test Key resistance over 11000 between March and July this year."
Now What
We still believe its quite possible for the Down to continue to trend higher this year and still could trade near the higher end of the range near the 12000+ level. A breakout of the previous intermediate term range has now created higher support levels and has raised the bar on resistance. Now, 11000 has become a new support range, but in the short term we wouldn't be surprised to see a slight pull back before creating higher highs.
Some Key levels to watch:
SUPPORT: 11000,10950,10840,10700,10500, which represent approximate support areas for the low end of the new intermediate term trading range.
RESISTANCE: 11115, 11250,11400,11500, which represent approximate resistance areas for the high end of the new intermediate term trading range.
"The Great depression lasted 3.7 years, from Aug 1929- March 1933. The current economic downturn started around Dec 2007- TBA. So lets hypothesize that this current one will last 3 yrs give or take a month. The March bottom in 2009 will probably mark the bottom of this cycle and 2010 we should see a range in the dow from 8250 - 12000+. If thats the case the The Global Credit Crisis should end on DEC 10 2010. If this hypothesis is correct, we must also assume that the market prices this in 6-9 months before. this is why i expect the market to test Key resistance over 11000 between March and July this year."
Now What
We still believe its quite possible for the Down to continue to trend higher this year and still could trade near the higher end of the range near the 12000+ level. A breakout of the previous intermediate term range has now created higher support levels and has raised the bar on resistance. Now, 11000 has become a new support range, but in the short term we wouldn't be surprised to see a slight pull back before creating higher highs.
Some Key levels to watch:
SUPPORT: 11000,10950,10840,10700,10500, which represent approximate support areas for the low end of the new intermediate term trading range.
RESISTANCE: 11115, 11250,11400,11500, which represent approximate resistance areas for the high end of the new intermediate term trading range.